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발표자: Yongcheol Shin (University of York)

주제: A Multi-Dimensional Spatial Autoregressive Model of Crime Spillovers in England and Wales

장소: 대우관 본관 3층 323호 (송하경홀)

날짜: 7월 2일 목요일 오후 4시 30분 ~ 오후 6시

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Abstract
This paper develops a Multidimensional Spatial Autoregressive (MSAR) framework to analyse crime as jointly indexed by location and offence type. The model captures three diffusion channels: (i) within‑area cross‑offence coupling, (ii) cross‑area same‑offence diffusion, and (iii) cross‑area cross‑offence propagation. Applying the framework to Police Force Areas in England and Wales (2015–2023), we document a shift from localised to network‑driven crime dynamics. Indirect effects dominate, with 50–65% of total impacts in 2023 arising through spillovers across areas and offence types. We introduce a transparent impact‑decomposition approach that attributes effects to specific network layers, offering clear policy interpretation. The results suggest that effective crime reduction requires regional coordination, spillover‑aware evaluation, and policies aligned with the underlying multi‑layer diffusion structure.