안녕하세요. BK21 교육연구단과 경제연구소에서는 다음과 같은 주제로 특강 및 세미나를 개최합니다.

발표자: Radoslaw Paluszynski (University of Houston)

주제: Optimal Taxation in the Age of AI Uncertainty

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of non-insurable technological shocks on labor markets and optimal tax policy. Using survey data, we document substantial dispersion in artificial intelligence (AI) pessimism, which is negatively correlated with worker income. Motivated by these findings, we build a dynamic Mirrlees income taxation model with ambiguity-averse workers. Workers form endogenous worst-case beliefs about the impact of new technologies, and these beliefs vary by skill level. This endogenous heterogeneity in expectations allows government policies to indirectly influence workers’ subjective beliefs and enhance welfare. We calibrate the model to the empirical findings on AI expectations and solve for optimal tax schedules and AI investment. We find that uncertainty over AI motivates a more progressive labor income tax schedule, combined with a mostly flat savings subsidy of about 10%.

발표자: Hyunju Lee (University of Houston)

주제: The Nearshoring Boom Mexico Almost Had

Abstract: This paper identifies nearshoring in the corporate credit market in Mexico resulting from the U.S.–China trade war in 2018. We estimate that firms in industries facing the highest tariffs borrowed up to 9% more than firms in other industries and enjoyed interest rates up to 0.2 percentage points lower. Yet, the aggregate economic outcomes of the nearshoring boom remain elusive. To understand why, we build a quantitative general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and calibrate it to replicate the microeconomic estimates of the nearshoring shock. In a counterfactual experiment, we find that Mexico’s growth from the trade war could have doubled if the economy had featured a more flexible credit intermediation system.

장소: 대우관 본관 3층 323호 (송하경홀)

날짜: 5월 28일 목요일 오후 1시 ~ 오후 5시 40분

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