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발표자:  Antonio Ciccone (University of Mannheim)

주제: The Long-Run Effects of Immigration: Evidence Across a Barrier to Refugee Settlement

장소: 대우관 본관 3층 323호 (송하경홀)

날짜: 8월 7일 목요일 오후 4시 00분 ~ 오후 5시 30분

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Abstract
We estimate the long-run effects on labor productivity and wages of a large immigration shock in post-WWII Germany, when refugee arrivals increased WestGermany’s population by almost 20% between 1945 and 1950. Our spatial regression discontinuity design considers municipalities in a narrow band around a barrier to refugee settlement established in 1945. In 1950, one year after the barrier was removed, population density was approximately 20% higher on the side where refugees had been allowed to settle. This discontinuity in population density has persisted ever since. While there were no economic differences before 1945, we find higher long-run labor productivity and wages where refugees could settle. Using a variety of data, we examine numerous explanations and conclude that these long run effects are driven by agglomeration economies. We document the nature of these economies. The long-run effects are consistent with spatial equilibrium as higher wages are balanced by higher rents.